In this article, we will try to do some breakout trading.
Paano nga ba predict ang breakout?
Well, possible breakout kaya natin ma predict or maanticipate, pero hindi sa lahat nang pag kakataon. Not a 100% guarantee sabi nga nila.
In this article, aalamin natin kung anong itsura ng possible good breakouts and bad breakouts
We all know that false breakouts are rampant in the cryptocurrency market.
Pero maiiwasan natin ito kung alam natin kung paano ianalyze ang market bago pa ito mangyari.
Good breakout
Madalas nangagaling ang mga breakouts sa trading ranges.
So kung maka kita ka ng market na nasa trading in range. Expect mo na magkakaroon ng breakout.
But the problem is, we don’t know kung ang breakout ba na mangyayari ay paitaas or paibaba.
Kaya marami tayong mga bagay na kailangan iconsider when anticipating a breakout.
We have to ask ourselves kung nasa accumulation stage ba ito or distribution stage?
Weekly time frame or daily time frame?
Stong momentum or weak momentum?
How about the volume?
Ilan lamang yan sa mga questions na kailangan natin itanong sa ating sarili before anticipating a breakout.
Anyway, balik tayo sa possible good breakout na usapan.
Ano ba yung mga signs na makikita natin sa price action para masabi na a good breakout is waiting for us?
- Smaller rejections off the highs or lows
- Price is basing or forming a build-up under resistance or above support.
- Forming an ascending or descending triangle
Let me give you an example:
Ang image na nakikita natin sa itaas ay Link/USDT pair.
That’s really a good example of a breakout.
So anong nangyari dito?
It forms an ascending triangle which is a bullish sign.
Kitang kita naman na nasa trending market ang takbo ng Link, patuloy ito sa pag buo nang higher high.
Pero aside from this, take a closer look kung paano na reject ang price nang mahit nito ang resistance level.
It shows a smaller rejection then went back under the resistance level.
Ano ang ibig sabihin nito?
Sign of strength ng buyer side.
So dito pa lang pwede ka nang mag enter for a long position.
Just put your stop loss on the swing low kung saan maiinvalidate ang strategy mo.
Once na mangyari ang breakout sa resistance level dito na papasok yung ibang mga traders breakout trader, trend followers, etc.
At ito ang magiging dahilan ng pag bulusok ng price paitaas.
Breakout failures
I have a different article kung paano maka iwas sa false break out.
Kung hindi nyo pa ito nababasa, paki bisita na lang.
This is just additional information about breakout failures.
Pero ano ang mga signs na makikita natin sa chart?
A Sudden spike in price from the low of consolidation to a breakout.
Let me give you an example:
This is a daily chart of XLM/USDT.
A not so good example pero pwede na natin pag tsagaan.
Ano ang difference between this image at sa example na nakita natin kanina?
The price is not forming a higher high.
Halos patas lang ang lakas ng buyer side at seller side.
Ang price ay tumatakbo sa ilalim ng 200 EMA.
So what does it mean?
It’s bearish, and not a good idea to put a long position.
Napansin nyo ba kung saan nangaling ang breakout dito sa chart ng XLM?
It almost came from the area of support.
Unlike, sa breakout na nangyari sa Link, ito ay nangaling sa ilalim ng resistance level.
So kung ang breakout ay manggagaling sa may support level sa loob ng trading range.
Malaki ang posibilidad na ang mga traders na bumili sa area ng support ay ibenta na agad ito sa may resistance level.
Therefore, this breakout does not have enough momentum for a rally.
Idagdag mo pa ang pin bar after a breakout. Mas lalo pa nitong pinagtibay ang lakas ng seller side.
Conclusion
Mabilis na tutorial lang naman ito kung paano ma identify ang good breakout.
At kung paano tayo makakaiwas sa false breakout. I hope it helps you as a trader. Lalo na sa mga nag sisimula pa lang.
Maraming nabibiktima ang false breakout dahil nadadala sila sa excitement (FOMO).
Just follow your trading plan. If you don’t have a plan, then create a plan it’s easy.
If you like this article and you learn something new, I would appreciate it if you could share this with your friends and people who want to learn how to trade.
Happy trading!
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