Sa trading napakadali lang mag sunog nang pera lalo na kung ang trader ay walang idea about risk management.
May dalawang mabilis na paraan para mag sunog ng account, ito yung hindi pag gamit ng stops and to trade too large for the account size.
Isama narin natin ang combination ng ignorance and greed.
Maihahalintulad natin ang trading sa pag tawid sa lubid sa napakataas na building. Mas magiging panatag tayo kung may safety nets na sasalo sa atin sa ilalim nito. Kung mag slip man tayo, safety nets will save us from smashing on the floor.
Same thing with trading, anything can happen in trading, kahit ang pinaka magandang set up at analysis sa trade can’t prevent accident.
Ang macocontrol lang natin as a trader is a risk.
Pero ang problema, napakadaming traders ang walang idea about risk management.
And most of them are newbie traders.
At sa pag babasa ng article na ito. I will explain kung paano ginagawa ang risk management. Na siguradong makakatulong sa kahit kaninong traders.
Madalas natin naririnig ang katagang risk management, pero iilan lang ang gumagawa or may malawak na pang-unawa dito.
Ang pag gamit ng stop loss kada trade ay isa lamang parte ng risk management. Pero ang risk management ay hindi lamang umiikot dito.
Ang mga sangkap ng risk management ay ang Budget size, Entry price, Stop loss, and Risk.
I will try to explain it one by one.
Budget Size
Ito yung kabuuan ng trading account natin, ito yung pera nagagamitin natin sa pag tetrade, whether long term or short term trading. May mga ibang trader na may trading account for long term at may trading account for short term. Pero kahit anong trading account pa yan, risk management is a must.
Entry price
Using technical analysis and trading strategy madali natin malalaman kung saan tayo papasok sa trade or yung entry point natin. It could be with the support and resistance, pullback, breakout etc. I have several trading strategies here in Altcoinpinoy, paki visit na lang kung wala pa tayong idea kung paano mag enter sa trade.
Stop loss
Hindi ko na masyado ididiscuss ang stop loss, I already covered this on a separated article. You can always put a stop loss sa ilalim ng entry point for a long position at sa ibabaw ng entry point for a short position. You can consider putting a stop loss as well. Using support and resistance.
Risk
A professional traders normally used a 2% risk. Pero dahil hindi naman tayo mga professional, at karamihan nang nagbabasa dito ay mga beginners, we can consider to use a 1% risk.
Ngayon, alam na natin ang mga kinakailangan para dito, let us start our calculations and position sizing
Gamit tayo ng calculator
Position sizing
Formula
Position size = (risk*budget) / (entry price-stop loss)
Para mas madaling iexplain, I will use Dollar instead of Peso. Sa mga trading platform naman, usually ang ginagamit ay dollar. So kailangan ang calculation natin sa ating budget size ay dollar.
Let say na ang budget size mo ay $1,000 at gusto mo bumili ng Bitcoin sa halagang $7,300, kasi nag eexpect ka na tataas ang price nito it means you will take a long position.
Ngayon, bago ka bumili hahanapin mo muna kung saan ang stop loss mo, at napansin mo na malakas ang support level sa entry point mo and you decided to put a stop loss sa price range of $7,227. And you will only risk 1%.
Now icalculate natin ito gamit ang formula.
Position size = (risk*budget) / (entry price-stop loss)
Position size = (1%*$1,000) / ($7,300-$7,227)= $10 / $73 = 0.1369863 BTC
Sa trade na ito ang maari mo lang bilihin ay 0.1369863 BTC. Therefore, we only risk 1% of our budget.
Another example, same scenario pero gagamit tayo ng much tighter na stop loss, applicable lang ito sa mga scalpers at day traders.
Ang budget size kaperahas lang nang example kanina $1,000. Entry point $7,300, 1% risk pa rin. Ang nag bago lang ay $7,290 na ang stop loss.
Let’s do the math.
Position size = (1%*1,000)/ ($7,300- $7,290)= $10/$10 = 1 BTC.
Wait, teka lang ang budget natin ay $1,000 pero bibili tayo ng 1 bitcoin na nagkakahalaga ng $7,300?
How does it possible?
Yes, possibly ito using margin and futures with the help of leverage. Don’t be confused,
Hindi natin niririsk ang buong budget na $1,000. We only risking 1%, remember we are using a tighter stop.
Pero bago ka sumabak sa ganito you should think twice. Kapag napaka volatile ng market you will stopped out right away. Kaya naman this is applicable for day traders and scalpers only. Swing trader will always use a wider stop.
Kung sa short position kailangan lang natin baguhin ng kaunti yung formula.
Position size = (risk*budget) / (stop loss- entry price)
Sa calculation na ito hindi pa kasama ang mga fees, pero hindi naman ito ganoon kalaki, kaya okay lang kung ikukumpara natin sa mga trader na walang risk management.
You should always do this calculation every trade! Kahit na conflict sa nararamdaman mo at sa iyong emotions. Darating ang panahon na gusto mong mag take ng large position and higher risk.
Kasi masyado kang confidence sa sarili mo and you want to disobey the rules of your risk management.
Pero ito lang ang masasabi ko, you should always stick with the math. Be a disciplinary trader and not trade with your emotions.
Profit target
Bago tayo pumasok sa trade kailangan alam na rin natin kung saan ang target profit. We all know that we are risking 1% kada trade, so ano ang kapalit na reward sa risk na ito?
Ang target profit natin ay nag lalaro dapat sa 3% or 2%. Minimum na yung 1%. It means a 1% risk for a 1% reward. Kung mas mababa pa dyan. Then you don’t have to take the trade and look for other opportunities.
Hindi naman ibig sabihin kailangan mo laging ma reach ang target profit, you can let your profit run and use a trailing stop.
Nabangit ko kanina na karamihan sa mga professional traders 2% rule of risk management ang ginagamit instead of 1%. Kung masyadong mababa para sa inyo ang 1%, pwede nyo naman gamitin ang 2% risk. Pero not more than 2%. Ito na yung pinaka limit, at hindi na pwedeng tumaas pa dyan.
Sa formula naman papalitan nyo lang yung 1% ng 2%.
Ito na yung pina simpleng explanation about risk management, kadalasan nang mga nababasa kung articles and books about risk management ay masyadong komplikado or nakakalito.
Alam ko medyo mahirap yung calculation, lalo na kung kailangan nyo itong gawin every trade. But to make your life easier, use a spreadsheet that will perform automatic calculations for you.
Pero kung isa ka sa mga trader na tamad at walang plano gumamit ng risk management, kasi lagi ka namang panalo sa mga trade mo. Then read this message from a professional trader
I make money almost every day, and I haven’t had a losing week in almost two years. At least until now. Yesterday, I gave back all the profits I had made over the last two years.
Anyway, If you find this article helpful, I really appreciate if you could share this article with your friends and your fellow traders. And I will cover soon additional risk management that I know so stick with Altcoipinoy.
Enjoy trading.
Sir pahingi n man ng spreadsheet para risk management.
Eto copy mo agad or download: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10RI-HF11c8XOhDly1cy6XmIytrosk1qJSgpvjlJwoI0/edit?usp=sharing
Sa scalping po ba sir need mo maka good entry para hindi ma hit yung sl? Na experience niyo na po ba sir na naka entry kayo ng maayos pero sa sobrang volatile ng market biglang na hit yung sl niyo pero tama naman yung analysis niyo kung saan pupunta yung trend/price?
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Sir Dime, itong risk management, applicable din sa Spot Trading?
Sorry, newbie lang po. E kasi short saka long na yung nababasa ko. Di po ba, Futures na po yata yung trading na yan?
Salamat po.